More than just a 10% tariff，Trump Return & US Energy Policy Adjustments?

On November 5, 2024, the Republican Party in the United States won 51 seats in the Senate and gained control. Former President Donald Trump will once again take office in the White House, and there may be a major adjustment in US energy policy.

Source: BloombergNEF

Trump has vowed to rescind Biden's regulations to push coal and natural gas out of the US power system, and pull back the current administration's clean power subsidies. His energy policy will be more inclined towards the development of fossil fuels, which will have a profound impact on the global energy landscape and the new energy industry.

However, Trump will need both houses of Congress to pass most of his proposals. Republicans gained control of the Senate but may still lose the House of Representatives. This would limit his ability to change climate laws like the Inflation Reduction Act without a rare bipartisan deal.

Source: BloombergNEF

Nevertheless, Trump can still take measures in certain key areas. He can change the impact of federal agencies and Irish military tax credits, grants, and loans on emissions and businesses by rewriting their rules and priorities. He can set tariffs that can scramble supply chains or protect infant industries, veto legislation passed by Congress, and has discretionary power over oil and gas and offshore wind leasing.

The globalized and commercialized solar energy industry is particularly vulnerable to the impact of tariffs. In addition to the threat of a general 10% tariff on imported products, Trump is more likely to support bipartisan efforts to impose new tariffs on major US solar suppliers in Southeast Asia and upstream components and manufacturing equipment that power new US solar factories.

The above article is excerpted from "BloombergNEF"

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